Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures closed Thursday in positive territory for the first time this week, with fractional to 2 cent gains in the front months. This morning’s USDA Export Sales report showed old crop corn sales in the week of April 18 on the middle of the range of estimates at 779,872 MT. That was down from the previous week but 23.51% larger than the same week in 2018. Japan was the top buyer of 349,400 MT, with 310,500 MT sold to Mexico. New crop sales totaled just 3,000 MT. The report did show 60,000 MT in sorghum sales to China, with 190,000 MT in unshipped sales on the books for 18/19. The International Grains Council estimates show 19/20 ending stocks at 275 MMT, up 9 MMT from their prior estimate on larger carryover and an increase to production. That would still be well below the prior year at 311 MMT. Argentina’s corn harvest is 28.1% complete according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, slightly above the 27.1% normal pace.

May 19 Corn closed at $3.47 1/2, up 3/4 cent,

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.57 1/4, up 1 1/4 cents,

Sep 19 Corn closed at $3.65 1/2, up 1 1/4 cents

Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.77 1/4, up 1 1/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures ended with 4 cent gains in the nearby contracts on Thursday, bouncing from multi-month lows. Meal futures were up $5.60/ton, with May soy oil down 28 points. US exporters sold 596,301 MT of 18/19 soybeans during the week ending on April 18, near the high end of expectations. That was a 56.6% jump from the week prior and 60.6% larger than this week last year. Unknown purchased 230,700 MT, with 212,113 MT for China. Soy Meal sales totaled 397,978 MT, with soy oil at 19,630 MT. Chinese customs data showed 4.92 MMT of soybeans imported in March, with 1.51 MMT US origin (down 50% yr/yr). IGC upped their 19/20 world soybean production estimate by 2 MMT, which also led to a 5 MMT jump carryout to 56 MMT. BAGE data shows the Argentine soybean harvest at 50.7% complete, above the 39.6% average.

May 19 Soybeans closed at $8.59 1/4, up 4 cents,

Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $8.72 3/4, up 4 cents,

Aug 19 Soybeans closed at $8.78 3/4, up 4 cents,

Sep 19 Soybeans closed at $8.84, up 4 cents,

May 19 Soybean Meal closed at $306.00, up $5.60,

May 19 Soybean Oil closed at $27.64, down $0.28

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures settled with fractional to 3 cent gains in the CBT and MPLS contracts on Thursday, with KC fractionally mixed. Parts of The Dakotas and MN are expected to see snow this weekend, likely delaying planting even further. May options expire on Friday. USDA reported 425,255 MT in all wheat old crop export bookings for the week of April 18. That is up 33.8% from the week prior and 43.09% larger than the same time last year. Mexico was the lead buyer of 160,800 MT. There are nearly 5.25 MMT in unshipped 18/19 sales (80% larger yr/yr) with just under a month and a half left in the MY. New crop sales totaled 226,189 MT. IKAR expects Russian wheat production in 2019 to total 80.1 MMT. A total of 600,000 MT of optional origin wheat is sought in a Saudi Arabia tender. World wheat production for 19/20 was increased by 3 MMT according to IGC projections, with carryover for new crop up 4 MMT to 274 MMT. Their Russian production projection is 79.5 MMT.

May 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.34 3/4, up 2 1/2 cents,

May 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.04 1/4, down 1/4 cent,

May 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.05, up 1 3/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures saw sharp losses in most contracts on Thursday, as June close a tick off limit lower. Feeder cattle futures felt the pressure from live cattle, down $2.975 to $3.55 in the front months. The CME feeder cattle index was down 6 cents to $145.78 on April 23. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Thursday morning. Choice boxes were down 3 cents at $232.93 with Select boxes 53 cents lower @ $219.75. USDA estimated this week’s FI cattle slaughter at 478,000 head through Thursday. That was down 7,000 head from the week prior but 3,000 above the same week last year. A few cash trades were reported at $126 in the South on Wednesday, with $127 sales in NE on Thursday (down $3 wk/wk). Beef export sales in the week of April 18 totaled 23,110 MT, the third largest this year.

Apr 19 Cattle closed at $124.050, down $2.725,

Jun 19 Cattle closed at $115.375, down $2.975,

Aug 19 Cattle closed at $112.925, down $2.900,

May 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $143.550, down $2.975

Aug 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $153.250, down $3.475

Sep 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $154.325, down $3.550

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures posted limit losses in all 2019 contracts but nearby May, down $1.325. This morning’s Export Sales report showed just 15,505 MT in pork bookings for the week ending 4/18. That was well below last week and far below two weeks ago. China net cancelled 214 tonnes. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another 72 cents from the previous day @ $82.79 on April 23. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was $3.26 lower in the Thursday afternoon report, at $83.72. That was a complete reversal from the AM report. The often-volatile belly led the way, down $22.78 per hundredweight. The national average base hog was at $81.24 on Thursday, up 50 cents from the day prior. Estimated week to date FI hog slaughter is 1.752 million head through Thursday. That was down from last year and the week prior due to Monday’s plant down time.

May 19 Hogs closed at $87.850, down $1.325,

Jun 19 Hogs closed at $89.775, down $3.000

Jul 19 Hogs closed at $94.650, down $3.000

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures were up 36 to 120 points in most contracts on Thursday. All old crop upland cotton export sales were reported at 238,967 RB by the USDA this morning. That was up 9.84% wk/wk but down 23.4% from this time last year. Turkey was the top buyer of 88,400 RB, with 74,600 RB for India. Chinese purchases totaled 13,095 RB. New crop sales were shown at 48,928 RB, with 17,600 MT to China. Actual shipments for the week of 4/18 totaled 317,980 RB, down 24.35% from the same week last year. The Cotlook A Index was down 55 points at 87.20 on April 24. The weekly Average World Price (AWP) was updated on Thursday to 68.68, down 20 points from last week.

May 19 Cotton closed at 76.97, up 120 points,

Jul 19 Cotton closed at 78.32, up 120 points

Oct 19 Cotton closed at 76.88, up 71 points

Dec 19 Cotton closed at 76.71, up 65 points,

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

Did you know Brugler Marketing & Management has more to offer to you than just this free daily commentary?! Producers just like you rely on our custom research and daily guidance on when and how to market their commodities. Click here to learn more about what we have to offer, or call 402-697-3623. Do it today!


Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here

Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.